Last call for $VXTR

$VXTR $VXTRF

I woke up today and found this in my email box.

Voxtur Provides Financial Guidance for Q4 and FY 2021 Ended December 31, 2021, and FY 2022

Highlights:

• Voxtur expects revenue for Q4 2021 in the range of $34M to $39M and for FY 2021 in the range of $92M to $97M.

• This represents 349% year-over-year revenue growth for FY 2021 over FY 2020, 468% year-over-year revenue growth for Q4 2021 over Q4 2020, and 38% sequential revenue growth for Q4 2021 over Q3 2021 (in each case at the low end of the revenue guidance range).

• Voxtur expects revenue for FY 2022 in the range of $170M to $190M, a potential year-over-year increase of 85%.

• Voxtur expects gross margin for Q4 2021 in the range of $12M to $14M and for FY 2021 in the range of $37M to $39M.

• This represents 295% year-over-year gross margin growth for FY 2021 over FY 2020, 353% year-over-year gross margin growth for Q4 2021 over Q4 2020, and 28% sequential gross margin growth for Q4 2021 over Q3 2021 (in each case at the low end of the gross margin guidance range).

• Voxtur expects gross margin for FY 2022 in the range of $87M to $97M, a potential year-over-year increase of 136%.

What does this mean?

Ladies and gentlemen. This is a stock that grew 468% and then 349%, and expecting 85% this year. Keep in mind that is a company that has gotten on the habit of underpromising and over-delivers in projections.

With expanding margins, if you read my analysis from December you know that those margins could stabilize in 50% or more, as it matures and everyone goes according to plan they could get over 70%. Remember this is a Daas (data as a service) company and has very little cost for incremental customers, and they will create new products from repurposing the data. I think MLS needs a serious competitor, and Voxter could turn into that someday.

As I mention in the December write up “Notice that acquiring Xome lowered the margins in the financial statements, but this is just momentarily. Management expects margins of 60% by the end of 2022 and 70% to 75% hallway of 2023”

But here is the interesting part: this is a CA $517M market capitalization company with Expectec revenues this year of say… CA$180M. That’s 2.87 Sales.

Let me give you the highest price to sales (P/S) multiples of the most richly valued companies with similar growth companies.

-          Bill.com 54x P/S, growth rate 151.9% before the bear market, now 33.4x

-          Snowflake 79.5x P/S, growth rate 109.5% before the bear market, now 32x.

-          Sprout social 11.1x P/S, growth rate 96.1% before the bear market, now 17.08x

-          Datadog 50.4x P/S, growth rate 74.9%% before the bear market, now 30.71x

-          Asana 34.4x P/S, growth rate 70.3% before the bear market, now 15.32x

I’m not saying these multiples cant keep falling or growing again, or that $VXTR will get them… I’m just saying 1.5x 2022 expected sales seem low. Plus these are all companies with gross margins between 60% to 80%. Voxtur may not be there yet, but I think they will be.

Catalyst:

Uplisting to Nasdaq, and as you know uplisting to this exchange will open the stock to a broader base of investors and the stock will demand better multiple, this is expected to be announced in Q2.

If you haven’t yet don’t forget to read the analysis below.

VOXTUR – 500% growth in 2022/2023.

And for the bear case:

for those who may expect multiples of 10x for a prolonged period of time:

You can always add your bear case arguments on $VXTR at

https://valuefund.substack.com/p/vortur-vxtr-vxtrf-bear-case/comments?s=w

I would really appreciate it.